XOHM Launch delayed again

CTIA Wireless, April 2008

The launch of XOHM, the pioneer mobile WiMAX service from Sprint which was expected in April 2008 after the commercial trials in three markets ( Chicago, Washington and Baltimore), has been put off ahgain, with no announcement yet on the exact launch dates.

The launch delay in the XOHM service was expected considering that the bulk of new mobile WiMAX devices are expected to be available only by June 2008 onwards. The Wave 2 certified devices (Certification by the WiMAX forum) are also expected to be available at the same time.

On the whole it is better to have a well matured launch rather than one with unwired turnouts.

http://www.wimax-home.com

WiMAX Forum Estimates 133 Million WiMAX users by 2012

The WiMAX forum has estimated that there will be over 133 million WiMAX users by 2012, a majority of which will consist of users of  mobile WiMAX with portable devices.

( See WWW.wimaxforum.org).

If one is to draw a parallel with the mobile networks, it is a good bet that a large number of users will come from BRIC countries. ( In particular Brazil, India and China). The number of mobile phone users in India at over 250 million has exceeded those of US  and is at the second place in the world, the first being China.

In this backdrop, it is hard to understand the estimates by the Gartner group of only 6.9 million WiMAX users in India by that time. Perhaps this number will be well exceeded.

Fortune has named WiMAX as the top ten wireless trend for 2008.The naming of WiMAX as the top wireless trend for 2008 has not come as a surprise to industry watchers. A number of developments, happening in their own areas are now coming together to deliver the promise of a completely new mobile wireless experience, the first in over a decade. There are no less than ten reasons, which we foresee today, which are likely to make this prediction ring true.

            Firstly, the price of  CPEs based on bill of material costs has for the first time forecast to be below $100 (e.g. by Wavesat®). This is even without any of the large scale introductions of WiMAX networks,  and even with relatively  low  CPE volumes in existence today. With volume the prices are set to nosedive even further.

                        Second, the year  2008 is slated to be  one, where large scale introductions of  WiMAX networks will happen. The launch of XOHM by Sprint Nextel and WiMAX from Clearwire® will propel the availability of WiMAX to over 100 million of customers before the year is out. This follows over 200 trials and successful introductions in a number of countries.

            Third, WiMAX technologies have now matured with the WIMAX forum certifying Wave 2 compatible mobile WiMAX devices. Chipsets are available e.g. from Beceem or Runcom amongst many others which provide immediate implementation of a variety of  customer premises equipment(CPEs).

            Fourth, the governments worldwide have now much higher awareness of  the power of mobility as well WiMAX as an enabler of rural and urban connectivities and its potential in delivering high speed applications. With many of the countries adding 8-10 million users a month for mobile services, universal connectivity is squarely in focus. This is implying a better focus on regulatory issues to spur WiMAX networks.

            Fifthly there is a greater availability of CPEs ranging from PC cards, USB modems, standalone gaming devices and internet tablets. Hence operators who do not possess wireline assets are now willing to take a plunge with the new technologies.

            Sixth, there is now much better clarity on the use of spectrum for WIMAX and mobile WiMAX. With the WRC 2007 adopting the OFDMA-TDD as one of the approved air interfaces under IMT-2000 as well as clearly defining the WiMAX spectrum bands, many of the pending allocations can be quickly resolved.

            Seventh, the success of programs such as M-Taiwan and Eratech® Argentina amongst many others have demonstrated that e-governance and universal connectivity are key drivers of global competitiveness. Regulators globally are seeking expeditious implementations of WiMAX networks, both through spectrum auctions as well as licensing etc.

            Eighth,  most of the legacy  wireline and wireless networks based on TDM circuit switched architecture are nearing end of life and the new generation networks( NGNs) are invariably being implemented based on IP. WiMAX is one of the key wireless technologies which are  based on completely open architectures, use of IETF protocols and use of IPv6. The use of WiMAX is seen not only as a migration to open IP core networks with support for mobility but also migration to IPv6 which is inevitable with growing base of mobile devices and mandates for such migration in many countries.

Ninth, the WiMAX technology, unlike its predecessor the WiFi, provides a number of quality of service classes, which can be defined for each connection and each application running over these connections. Thus it can support VoIP for rural telephony as easily as streaming video with their own QoS classes. It is now being seen as a key technology to enable true broadband capable of supporting a rich multimedia messaging and calling environments. Whether it is pictures with an 8Mp camera or an 80GB iPOD®, WiMAX can keep these wireless. Many applications are now ready to step out of the limited connectivity and the row resolutions enabled by today’s mobile networks.

Tenth and finally, all this would be in vain, were it not for some “big-bang” introductions of the technology, which immediately provide a critical mass for prices to come down sufficiently for even more users to subscribe to the service, thus creating a chain reaction.

With the impending launches in a number of countries, as well as launch of Sprint Nextel XOHM and Clearwire® services in USA, the stage is now fully set for just such a phenomenon.

            Just as WiFi changed the landscape in the use of computers and mobile devices in just a couple of years, get set to witness  the same for WiMAX this year. The drama is expected to unfold with veterans on the stage with the likes of Intel, Samsung, Motorola and Sprint  being a part of the star cast and many years of rehearsing behind them. The drama will be played out on the world theatre, with virtually every country donning its colors and logo.